Application of Markovian models for non-ergodic and non-stationary earthquake times series for the identification of seismic patterns and future projections*          下载免费PDF全文

Hakan Karaca 《地震科学（英文版）》2020,33(2):98-106

The current earthquake forecast algorithms are not free of shortcomings due to inherent limitations. Especially, the requirement of stationarity in the evaluation of earthquake time series as a prerequisite, significantly limits the use of forecast algorithms to areas where stationary data is not available. Another shortcoming of forecast algorithms is the ergodicity assumption, which states that certain characteristics of seismicity are spatially invariant. In this study, a new earthquake forecast approach is introduced for the locations where stationary data are not available. For this purpose, the spatial activity rate density for each spatial unit is evaluated as a parameter of a Markov chain. The temporal pattern is identified by setting the states at certain spatial activity rate densities. By using the transition patterns between the states, 1- and 5-year forecasts were computed. The method is suggested as an alternative and complementary to the existing methods by proposing a solution to the issues of ergodicity and stationarity assumptions at the same time.  相似文献   

Transient seepage analysis in zoned anisotropic soils based on the scaled boundary finite‐element method          下载免费PDF全文

Mohammad Hossein Bazyar  Abbas Talebi 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2015,39(1):1-22

The scaled boundary finite‐element method, a semi‐analytical computational scheme primarily developed for dynamic stiffness of unbounded domains, is applied to the analysis of unsteady seepage flow problems. This method is based on the finite‐element technology and gains the advantages of the boundary element method as well. Only boundary of the domain is discretized, no fundamental solution is required and singularity problems can be modeled rigorously. Anisotropic and non‐homogeneous materials satisfying similarity are modeled with no additional efforts. In this study, firstly, formulation of the method for the transient seepage flow problems is derived followed by its solution procedures. The accuracy, simplicity and applicability of the method are demonstrated via four numerical examples of transient seepage flow – three of them are available in the literature. Homogenous, non‐homogenous, isotropic and anisotropic material properties are considered to show the versatility of the technique. Excellent agreement with the finite‐element method is observed. The method out‐performs the finite‐element method in modeling singularity points. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Macroscopic criteria for Green type porous materials with spheroidal voids: application to double porous materials          下载免费PDF全文

W. Q. Shen  J.‐F. Shao  D. Kondo 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(13):1453-1473

Combined effects of matrix plastic compressibility and void shape are investigated for ductile porous materials. To this end, a spheroidal volume containing a confocal spheroidal (prolate or oblate) void subjected to uniform strain rate boundary conditions has been first studied. A Green type matrix is chosen as a prototype for investigating effects of plastic compressibility. This is carried out by using a kinematics limit analysis theory from which a closed‐form expression of the macroscopic criterion is established for the considered class of materials. These results are then extended to ductile porous materials made up of a green matrix containing randomly oriented spheroidal voids. In the framework of a two‐step homogenization procedure, the obtained results are implemented to describe the macroscopic behavior of double porous materials involving spherical voids at the microscale and randomly oriented and distributed spheroidal voids at the mesoscale. For validation purpose, the new derived criteria are assessed and validated by comparing their predictions to available upper bounds and numerical data from literature. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Dynamic response of a pile considering the interaction of pile variable cross section with the surrounding layered soil          下载免费PDF全文

Liu Gao  Kuihua Wang  Si Xiao  Wenbing Wu 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(9):1196-1214

Assuming that the pile variable cross section interacts with the surrounding soil in the same way as the pile toe does with the bearing stratus, the interaction of pile variable cross section with the surrounding soil is represented by a Voigt model, which consists of a spring and a damper connected in parallel, and the spring constant and damper coefficient are derived. Thus, a more rigid pile–soil interaction model is proposed. The surrounding soil layers are modeled as axisymmetric continuum in which its vertical displacements are taken into account and the pile is assumed to be a Rayleigh–Love rod with material damping. Allowing for soil properties and pile defects, the pile–soil system is divided into several layers. By means of Laplace transform, the governing equations of soil layers are solved in frequency domain, and a new relationship linking the impedance functions at the variable‐section interface between the adjacent pile segments is derived using a Heaviside step function, which is called amended impedance function transfer method. On this basis, the impedance function at pile top is derived by amended impedance function transfer method proposed in this paper. Then, the velocity response at pile top can be obtained by means of inverse Fourier transform and convolution theorem. The effects of pile–soil system parameters are studied, and some conclusions are proposed. Then, an engineering example is given to confirm the rationality of the solution proposed in this paper. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

River evaporation,condensation and heat fluxes within a first‐order tributary of Catamaran Brook (New Brunswick,Canada)          下载免费PDF全文

Daniel Caissie 《水文研究》2016,30(12):1872-1883

Stream temperature plays an important role in many biotic and abiotic processes, as it influences many physical, chemical and biological properties in rivers. As such, a good understanding of the thermal regime of rivers is essential for effective fisheries management and the protection aquatic habitats. Moreover, a thorough understanding of underlying physical processes and river heat fluxes is essential in the development of better and more adaptive water temperature models. Very few studies have measured river evaporation and condensation and subsequently calculated corresponding heat fluxes in small tributary streams, mainly because microclimate data (data collected within the stream environment) are essential and rarely available. As such, the present study will address these issues by measuring river evaporation and condensation in tributary 1 (Trib 1, a small tributary within Catamaran Brook) using floating minipans. The latent heat flux and other important fluxes were calculated. Results showed that evaporation was low within the small Trib 1 of Catamaran Brook, less than 0.07 mm day^?1. Results showed that condensation played an important role in the latent heat flux. In fact, condensation was present during 34 of 92 days (37%) during the summer, which occurred when air temperature was greater than water temperature by 4–6 °C. Heat fluxes within this small stream showed that solar radiation dominated the heat gains and long‐wave radiation dominated the heat losses. © 2015 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Hydrological Processes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A 3D discrete FEM iterative algorithm for solving the water pipe cooling problems of massive concrete structures          下载免费PDF全文

Jing Cheng  T. C. Li  Xiaoqing Liu  L. H. Zhao 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(4):487-508

Water pipe cooling has been widely used for the temperature control and crack prevention of massive concrete structures such as high dams. Because both under‐cooling and over‐cooling may reduce the efficiency of crack prevention, or even lead to great harm to structures, we need an accurate and robust numerical tool for the prediction of cooling effect. Here, a 3D discrete FEM Iterative Algorithm is introduced, which can simulate the concrete temperature gradient near the pipes, as well as the water temperature rising along the pipes. On the basis of the heat balance between water and concrete, the whole temperature field of the problem can be computed exactly within a few iteration steps. Providing the pipe meshing tool for building the FE model, this algorithm can take account of the water pipe distribution, the variation of water flow, water temperature, and other factors, while the traditional equivalent algorithm based on semi‐theoretical solutions can only solve problems with constant water flow and water temperature. The validation and convergence are proved by comparing the simulated results and analytical solutions of two standard second‐stage cooling problems. Then, a practical concrete block with different cooling schemes is analyzed and the influences of cooling factors are investigated. In the end, detailed guidance for pipe system optimization is provided. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

1992年以来盐城滨海湿地植被动态变化研究     

张佳佳  沈永明 《海洋科学》2018,42(8):14-21

基于1992～2016年4个时相的遥感数据, 对盐城滨海川东港至梁垛河口岸段进行景观分类, 分析湿地植被类型及分布, 借助转移矩阵法探究滨海湿地植被的时空演变。结果表明: 茅草、芦苇、碱蓬, 米草为川东港至梁垛河口段主要湿地植被类型。1992～2016年植被总面积减少, 其中茅草几近消失殆尽; 芦苇、碱蓬面积持续缩减; 米草面积大幅增长。1992～2000年植被面积快速缩减, 大面积的茅草碱蓬地被开发为耕地; 2000～2009年养殖塘侵占湿地植被, 规模剧增。2009～2016年, 米草向海方向扩张的同时靠陆侧转变为养殖塘。川东港至梁垛河口的植被演变是自然和人为共同作用的结果。一方面受淤积型海岸影响, 另一方面受政策引导下的各类滩涂开发活动, 及互花米草的引种所带来的快速扩散的影响。本文研究结果为盐城滨海湿地管理与可持续发展提供理论参考。  相似文献   

Time series analysis of CO concentrations from an Eastern Kentucky coal fire     

James C. Hower  Jennifer M.K. O'Keefe  Kevin R. Henke  Amirhossein Bagherieh 《International Journal of Coal Geology》2011,88(4):227

Coal fires in natural outcrops, in abandoned and active coal mines, and in coal and coal-refuse piles are responsible for the uncontrolled emissions of gases, including CO, CO₂, H₂S, hydrocarbons, and volatile aromatics. Typically, measurements of gases at a mine vent are made over a short time interval, perhaps no more than 10 min, including the time for replicate measurements. Such timing provides little information on longer-term variations in emissions, although comparisons of seasonal measurements suggest such changes do occur. To address this problem, we placed temperature and CO data loggers in coal fire vents to collect time series measurements for a period of up to three weeks. For one experiment, 11 days of data at one-minute intervals indicated that the CO emissions were generally in the 400–550 ppmv range. However near daily depressions in CO concentrations occurred and in some cases fell below 50 ppmv; followed by an increase to ~ 700–800 ppmv; in turn followed by a return to the ambient conditions. Data for a separate 21-day collection period in a different vent of the same fire exhibited similar trends, albeit at a higher CO concentration. The drop in CO concentration may be associated with a meteorologically-driven inhalation cycle of the fire, whereby air diluted the combustion generated CO. We propose this was followed by an increase in the intensity of the fire due to increased O₂ from the inhaled air, producing increased CO concentrations, before settling back to the ambient conditions.  相似文献   

Metamorphic veining and mass transfer in a chemically closed system: a case study in Alpine metabauxites (western Vanoise)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

B. GOFFÉ  F. BRUNET  C. POINSSOT  O. VIDAL  N. FINDLING  D. MENUT 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2011,29(3):275-300

In western Vanoise (French Alps), karstic pockets of Triassic‐to‐Jurassic metabauxites embedded in carbonate rocks and containing several generations of metamorphic veins were studied. During blueschist facies metamorphism, a cumulative amount of ～13 vol% of water is inferred to have been produced locally by successive dehydration reactions, and part of this fluid remained in the bauxitic lenses during most of the metamorphic cycle. Field and geochemical evidence show that these rocks have been isolated from large‐scale fluid flow (closed‐system behaviour). It is proposed that the internally derived fluid has promoted the opening of fluid‐filled open spaces (as attested by the euhedral habits of vein minerals) and served as medium for mass transfer from rock to vein. Indeed, the vein infill is obviously the result of chemical interactions, at the millimetre‐to‐centimetre scale, between the rock minerals and the locally produced aqueous fluid. Two vein types can be distinguished based on mineralogical and textural features: (i) some veins are filled with newly formed products of either prograde (chloritoid) or retrograde (chlorite) metamorphic reactions; in this case, fluid‐filled open spaces seem to offer energetically favourable nucleation/growth sites; (ii) the second vein type is infilled with cookeite or pyrophyllite, that were present in the host rock prior to the vein formation. In this closed chemical system, the components for the vein infill minerals have been transferred from rock to vein through the fluid, in a dissolution–transport–precipitation process, possibly stress‐assisted. These different vein generations all contain Al‐rich mineral infills, suggesting that Al was a mobile element (cm scale) during metamorphism. In these HP rocks, fluid flow may have been restricted, and if so mass transfer occurred by diffusion in an almost stagnant fluid. Metamorphic veins can be seen as witnesses of fluid and mass redistribution that partly accommodate the rock deformation (lateral segregation).  相似文献   

A simplified nonlinear analysis method for piled raft foundation in layered soils under vertical loading     

Maosong Huang  Fayun Liang  Jie Jiang 《Computers and Geotechnics》2011

This paper presents a simplified nonlinear solution for piled raft foundations in layered soils under vertical loading. Based on the elastic–plastic analysis of a single pile in a layered soil, the shielding effect between a receiver pile and the soil is taken into account to modify the conventional interaction factor between two piles. An approximate approach with the concept of the interaction factor is employed to study the nonlinear behavior of pile groups with a rigid cap. Considering the variation of soil properties, the solution to multilayered elastic materials is used to calculate the settlement of the soil. The interactions between pile–soil–raft are taken into account to determine the stiffness matrix of the piled raft. By solving the stiffness matrix equations, the settlement and the load shared by the piles and raft could be obtained. Compared with results of the available published literatures, the proposed solution provides reasonable results.  相似文献